EU: European suppliers could compete for 56% of the world rail supply market in 2023–2025, down from 59% two years earlier, the European Rail Supply Industry Association (UNIFE) said on 22 September. The open market was worth EUR 124bn a year out of EUR 220.6bn.
UNIFE presented the 11th edition of its World Rail Market Study, prepared by Bain & Company, on its stand at the InnoTrans trade fair in Berlin. Markets counted as closed include in-house production and countries with trade barriers or a strong preference for domestic suppliers. UNIFE describes the fall as an acceleration of a long-term decline.
The comparison covers two three-year periods, 2021–2023 and 2023–2025. Over that span the market grew 4.6% a year excluding inflation, and UNIFE expects growth of 3.2% a year to 2029–2031. UNIFE says order books across the industry are full.
What UNIFE counts as closed
The remaining roughly EUR 97bn a year sits in markets where European suppliers cannot bid. At a press briefing in Berlin on 21 September, UNIFE director general Enno Wiebe pointed to local production in China, India and the United States, and to fast growth in markets with low access, notably China, Russia and India. He put the lost market opportunities for European suppliers at EUR 6.8bn.
He said in a statement reported by Reuters that this was the third study in a row to show a fall in access. According to the news agency, the accessible share has been declining for almost two decades.
Where the growth is
Services was the largest segment at EUR 84.1bn a year, ahead of rolling stock at EUR 68.8bn, infrastructure at EUR 41.7bn, rail control at EUR 24.9bn and turnkey projects at EUR 1.2bn.
Asia-Pacific is the largest region, driven by a recovery in China and growth in India. Western Europe is the second largest. UNIFE says Western Europe grew slowly, as coronavirus stimulus expired and large rolling stock orders returned to normal levels.
At 3.2% a year, the market reaches EUR 267bn a year in 2029–2031, he said at the briefing.
The procurement argument
On 9 September the European Commission proposed a European preference in public procurement. In January UNIFE urged the EU to screen foreign rail technology.
At the same briefing, the German Railway Industry Association (VDB) said its members’ order intake rose 19% to EUR 21.8bn in 2025. Revenue was EUR 15.6bn, of which EUR 9.8bn came from the home market, according to managing director Sarah Stark.
The full study is a paid product published with DVV Media Group. UNIFE’s abstract, published in July, is free.